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Prioritizing Threats: AHP-Based Assessment of Terrorist Intention and Capability for Intelligence Operations
Abstract
Intelligence analysts play a vital role in evaluating terrorist threats, a process that demands objectivity, consistency, and analytical rigor. To move beyond intuition-based assessments and reduce subjective bias, this paper introduces a structured methodology grounded in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) a decision-making framework developed by Thomas L. Saaty. This approach focuses on two fundamental indicators central to terrorism threat analysis: intention and capability. By assigning weights and ratings to relevant sub-indicators, AHP allows analysts to systematically prioritize persons of interest (POIs) based on quantifiable threat levels. The paper further enhances its practical relevance through a series of illustrative case studies that simulate real-world profiles, demonstrating how limited information can be transformed into actionable intelligence. This research offers a scientifically grounded, scalable model that supports intelligence and law enforcement agencies in making informed, data-driven decisions in the fight against terrorism.
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