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Oil Drilling Schedule
Abstract
The Initial Oil Drilling Schedule Model With Uncertainty estimates a schedule of capital expenditures and production and shows how this schedule depends on the anticipated volumes of oil recovery. The Initial model here does this for a 5-year planning period. The uncertainties, treated here as normal, are the inputs to the amount of recovery (area, net pay, and recovery rate). These are multiplied to get the recoverable amount. The Oil Drilling Schedule Basic @RISK Model expands on the Initial Model With Uncertainty. Each of the inputs to the reserve size (area, net pay, and recovery rate) is modeled with triangular distributions. (The parameters of these distributions would come from experts' knowledge about the current site and similar historical sites.) These lead to the histogram of Recoverable shown. This looks like a lognormal shape. In general, when random quantities are multiplied, the resulting product typically has a lognormal shape.
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