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Waterflood Project With Production Scenarios
Abstract
A waterflood project analyses where recoverable oil must be estimated, and one of four production schedules is used to generate a revenue stream. The model combines volumetric estimates, prices, costs, and production scheduling. The overall objective is to estimate the NPV and IRR for the project over an 18-year horizon, given information about initial costs, operating costs, reservoir description, production schedules, prices, working interest, and taxes. The volumetric analysis calculates the total reserves STB. The initial startup costs are considered fixed, but the annual electricity, labor, and overhead costs, as well as the price of oil, are modeled as random walks, using the parameters shown. The key aspect of the model is the production schedule: the percentage of total reserves extracted each year. Four possible production schedules are listed. On each iteration, one of these schedules is chosen randomly. Outputs from the simulation are averages over the possible schedules.
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