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Oil Pipeline Risk
Abstract
Nine types of risks and nine routes in the Oil Pipeline Network are simulated. Each route has three characteristics: diameter, mean pressure, and distance. For each type of risk and each route, two quantities are simulated: the number of events where that risk type occurs and the typical magnitude of such a risk. These are then accumulated to find the severities of the risk types, by route and total over all routes. Sufficient historical data is available to estimate regression equations relating the frequency and Mean magnitude of each risk type to the characteristics of the routes. The resulting coefficients are presented in Parameters and Errors. With Simulating Risk Frequency or Mean Risk Magnitude, the error coefficient is multiplied by a standard normal random variable to provide extra variability. Risk Frequencies are Poisson distributed with Means from Regressions. Event Magnitudes are lognormally distributed with Means from Regressions and Standard Deviations.
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