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Oil and Gas Forecast
Abstract
Initial Oil and Gas Forecast Model With Uncertainty makes forecasts of production-revenues-expenses for a multi-year period in the face of much uncertainty. It creates forecasts for 10 years, with all of the input required. The NPV of about $10.4 million is a best guess, but with all the uncertainty that exists. Oil and Gas Forecast Basic @RISK Model introduces essential improvements. Each of the input cells is modeled with a specific probability distribution. The values are generated once and then used each year. The decline in oil and gas production is constant from year to year. The model assumes constant trends in oil and gas prices. The annual operating expenses vary around 3% of the initial capital expenditure plus $3 per barrel of oil. Oil and Gas Forecast Sensitivity Analysis considers the uncertain inputs the NPV output is most sensitive to, illustrating one of the options in @RISK sensitivity analysis.
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