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Exponential Decline
Abstract
The Decline Curve analysis of the oil and gas wells model examines the production forecasting for oil and gas wells, i.e., the exponential decline curve. The standard equation, q = qie-at (3.3), can be used with random variables for both qi (the initial production rate, sometimes called IP) and a (the constant decline rate). Here the model has an additional parameter, t (time), which makes the output (Rate, STB/YR) more complicated than the volumetric reserves output. The distributions of numbers for output and forecasts or graphs are needed. The worksheet has two input cells, IP and Decline, and a column of outputs for the Rate of production in STB/YR over 15 years. After the simulation, a summary graph is generated. This graph shows uncertainty over the 15 years. Two colors signify 1) the 5th and 95th percentiles and 2) the 25th and 75th percentiles, thus representing a 90% confidence interval.
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