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The South China Sea in US-China Relations: Development Trends and Strategic Forecasts Toward 2028
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Author(s): Hieu Bach Tran (Thai Binh University, Vietnam), Nhi Tran Yen Dinh (Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, Vietnam), Duc Trung Nguyen (University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam)and Kiet Hoang Le (University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam)
Copyright: 2026
Pages: 30
Source title:
Emerging Maritime Security Strategies of Global Powers
Source Author(s)/Editor(s): Kiet Hoang Le (University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam)and Hiep Xuan Tran (University of Science and Education, The University of Da Nang, Vietnam)
DOI: 10.4018/979-8-3373-4470-6.ch006
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Abstract
This chapter forecasts South China Sea (SCS) dynamics in US-China relations through 2028, employing qualitative document analysis to examine geopolitical trends, power balance shifts, and domestic policy drivers. Analysis reveals that while China's economic rise and military modernization enable greater SCS assertiveness, the US maintains technological superiority and alliance advantages. Under Trump's second administration, characterized by transactional diplomacy yet bipartisan anti-China consensus, Washington will likely deepen regional engagement through traditional allies and expanded partnerships. China is projected to intensify gray-zone tactics, maritime presence, and infrastructure development while pursuing economic diplomacy to fragment ASEAN unity. The study concludes that through 2028, the SCS will remain a contested flashpoint marked by persistent tensions and strategic competition, though direct military confrontation remains unlikely due to mutual restraint and crisis management capabilities between both powers.
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