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Scenario Planning as a Tool to Manage Crises in Chaotic and Uncertain Environments: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic
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Author(s): Cynthia Maria Montaudon Tomas (Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla, Mexico), Ingrid N. Pinto-López (Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla, Mexico)and Anna Amsler (Independent Researcher, Mexico)
Copyright: 2021
Pages: 22
Source title:
Handbook of Research on Management Techniques and Sustainability Strategies for Handling Disruptive Situations in Corporate Settings
Source Author(s)/Editor(s): Rafael Perez-Uribe (Universidad de la Salle, Colombia), David Ocampo-Guzman (EAN University, Colombia), Nelson Antonio Moreno-Monsalve (EAN University, Colombia)and William Stive Fajardo-Moreno (EAN University, Colombia)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-7998-8185-8.ch009
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Abstract
This chapter will describe scenario planning and establish its value in facing crises and chaotic situations. It explains how research in the field has evolved and describes context conditions such as uncertainty, crisis, and chaos, which provide fertile grounds for scenario planning. A bibliometric analysis is presented to illustrate the increase in the study of scenario planning as a tool to deal with uncertainty. Examples from scenario planning around the world are introduced to show its global application and potential. A comparative analysis is presented based on different exercises in scenario planning developed during the COVID-19 pandemic to provide an insight into the key uncertainties linked to the health crisis and how a broad perspective can help provide clarity in chaotic environments.
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