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China's Maritime Security Strategy in the South China Sea: Impact, Challenges, and Prospects
Abstract
This chapter examines China's maritime security strategy in the South China Sea under President Xi Jinping, analyzing its transformation from measured assertiveness to aggressive power projection. While China has achieved significant territorial gains through island construction and enhanced military presence, this strategy faces substantial challenges including coordinated resistance from Southeast Asian states, sustained US commitment to regional allies, and erosion of China's diplomatic credibility. The analysis reveals inherent strategic limitations: gray-zone tactics cannot compel decisive outcomes, military infrastructure remains vulnerable during high-intensity conflict, and prolonged competition imposes mounting economic costs. The chapter forecasts continued low-intensity confrontation characterized by tactical probing, escalating naval competition, and diplomatic stalemate, with the South China Sea remaining a critical flashpoint in US-China strategic rivalry for the foreseeable future.
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