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Below the Threshold of War: China's Gray Zone Tactics and Vietnam's Strategic Adaptation in the South China Sea
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Author(s): Tien Nam Tran (University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)and Trang Thu Nguyen (University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
Copyright: 2026
Pages: 30
Source title:
Emerging Maritime Security Strategies of Global Powers
Source Author(s)/Editor(s): Kiet Hoang Le (University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam)and Hiep Xuan Tran (University of Science and Education, The University of Da Nang, Vietnam)
DOI: 10.4018/979-8-3373-4470-6.ch012
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Abstract
This chapter examines China's gray zone strategy in the South China Sea and its implications for Vietnam. Through documentary analysis and case study methodology, it demonstrates how China employs paramilitary forces, legal warfare, economic coercion, and information operations to incrementally alter the maritime status quo while remaining below the threshold of armed conflict. The study traces the evolution of Chinese tactics through three distinct phases (2009-2020), revealing increasing sophistication in coordination across military, legal, and diplomatic domains. Vietnam's response combines firm diplomatic protests, adherence to UNCLOS, defense modernization, and “bamboo diplomacy”—flexible yet principled engagement balancing cooperation and resistance. The chapter concludes with policy recommendations emphasizing ASEAN unity, maritime capacity-building, economic diversification, and multilateral cooperation to enhance Vietnam's resilience against gray zone pressures while preserving regional stability.
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