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Which Is Important in Analyzing and Forecasting the Volatility Crossways Livestock Markets: Economic, Financial, Political, or Health Crises?
Abstract
This paper examines an essential methodology to evaluate the influence of the Subprime mortgage crisis (2007-2010), Euro debt crisis (2009-2019), COVID-19 pandemic (2020-present day) and Russia-Ukraine conflict (2022-present day) surprises conditional returns and volatilities of S&P GSCI Livestock markets. To assess analytically the unexpected component of surprises, we use GARCH (1,1) model during the period of study from June 01, 2005, to June 30, 2024. Our results suggest significant and considerable effect of Subprime mortgage crisis, Euro debt crisis, COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict surprises on returns and volatilities of S&P GSCI Livestock markets. Additionally, these outcomes demonstrate the financialization phenomena of S&P GSCI Livestock markets. We find that the volatilities of S&P GSCI Livestock markets are affected by COVID-19 pandemic surprises.
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