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The Twin Deficit as an Early Warning Sign in Avoiding Crises: The Case of Greece

The Twin Deficit as an Early Warning Sign in Avoiding Crises: The Case of Greece
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Author(s): Stephanos Papadamou (University of Thessaly, Greece)and Eleftherios Spyromitros (Democritus University of Thrace, Greece)
Copyright: 2016
Pages: 22
Source title: Handbook of Research on Financial and Banking Crisis Prediction through Early Warning Systems
Source Author(s)/Editor(s): Qaiser Munir (Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-4666-9484-2.ch015

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Abstract

By analyzing the causes and consequences of Greek debt crisis, we identify early warning fiscal and financial signals. The existence of twin deficits for a number of years can be characterized as the key fiscal indicator concerning the debt problems faces Greece. Moreover, indicators from the banking sector also reveal significant information for the Greek crisis. The interdependence of banking and government sectors and opportunistic political behavior can affect dramatically a small economy. Common currency reveals structural weaknesses of the Greek economy.

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