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The Method of Probabilistic Nodes Combination in Decision Making and Risk Analysis: Data Extrapolation in Planning
Abstract
Proposed method, called Probabilistic Nodes Combination (PNC), is the method of 2D curve interpolation and extrapolation using the set of key points (knots or nodes). Nodes can be treated as characteristic points of data for modeling and analyzing. The model of data can be built by choice of probability distribution function and nodes combination. PNC modeling via nodes combination and parameter ? as probability distribution function enables value anticipation in risk analysis and decision making. Two-dimensional curve is extrapolated and interpolated via nodes combination and different functions as discrete or continuous probability distribution functions: polynomial, sine, cosine, tangent, cotangent, logarithm, exponent, arc sin, arc cos, arc tan, arc cot or power function. Novelty of the paper consists of two generalizations: generalization of previous MHR method with various nodes combinations and generalization of linear interpolation with different (no basic) probability distribution functions and nodes combinations.
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