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Risk Evaluation of EPC Supply Chain Based on SCOR and Multi-Level Grey Model: A Case Study of China's Waste Incineration Plant Project
Abstract
With the development of China's economy, large-scale engineering and complex engineering are emerging. The Engineering Procurement Construction (EPC) project general contracting model is widely used in civil engineering, water conservancy, railway, water treatment, waste incineration plants and other large engineering area. The increasing complexity of construction technology and the risks are facing overwhelming and fragile supply chain. Based on the deep analysis of supply chain operation reference (SCOR) model, which is widely used in various fields of industry, this article puts forward the preliminary index system of supply chain risk of EPC project by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The risk index system of waste incineration project including 5 first-level risk indicators and 27 second-level risk indicators has been established and determined. The multi-level grey model is used to evaluate the risk index, calculate the grey evaluation coefficient and the grey evaluation weight vector as well as the weight matrix, draw the specific risk evaluation value of the project, and sort the first level index. Finally, an EPC example of a waste incineration in Hubei Province is used to verify the feasibility and reliability of the method.
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