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Predictive Analytics for Infrastructure Performance

Predictive Analytics for Infrastructure Performance
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Author(s): Sue McNeil (University of Delaware, USA), Susanne Trimbath (STP Advisory Services, LLC, USA), Farzana Atique (University of Delaware, USA)and Ryan Burke (U.S. Air Force Academy, USA)
Copyright: 2017
Pages: 16
Source title: Organizational Productivity and Performance Measurements Using Predictive Modeling and Analytics
Source Author(s)/Editor(s): Madjid Tavana (La Salle University, USA), Kathryn Szabat (La Salle University, USA)and Kartikeya Puranam (La Salle University, USA)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-5225-0654-6.ch001

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Abstract

A predictive analysis methodology was designed for application to the Transportation Performance Index, which was first released in September 2010 through the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to benchmark and measure changes in the performance of US infrastructure over time. This article starts with a summary of the development and use of the Index in order to present the performance indicators that were the foundation of the predictive analysis. A new methodology was developed to generate prospective values for the Index by applying elements of the improvement plans from US Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) that paralleled the performance indicators used in the Index. The results show that over a 24 year period (2011 to 2035) the plans developed by MPOs can slow the decline in infrastructure over a baseline scenario. In addition to forecasting changes in the performance of the infrastructure that undergirds all economic activity, the results serve to further validate the Index as a methodology that captures important performance functions of transportation infrastructure. The original purpose of the Index was to capture trends, making it well-suited to the application of predictive analysis.

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