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Modelling Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes: A Hybrid Approach to a Coastal Area
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Author(s): Raquel Faria de Deus (Interdisciplinary Centre of Social Sciences (CICS.NOVA), NOVA FCSH, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Portugal), José António Tenedório (Interdisciplinary Centre of Social Sciences (CICS.NOVA), NOVA FCSH, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Portugal)and Jorge Rocha (Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal)
Copyright: 2021
Pages: 46
Source title:
Methods and Applications of Geospatial Technology in Sustainable Urbanism
Source Author(s)/Editor(s): José António Tenedório (Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Portugal), Rossana Estanqueiro (Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Portugal)and Cristina Delgado Henriques (Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-7998-2249-3.ch003
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Abstract
In this chapter, a hybrid approach integrating cellular automata (CA), fuzzy logic, logistic regression, and Markov chains for modelling and prediction of land-use and land-cover (LULC) change at the local scale, using geographic information with fine spatial resolution is presented. A spatial logistic regression model was applied to determine the transition rules that were used by a conventional CA model. The overall dimension of LULC change was estimated using a Markov chain model. The proposed CA-based model (termed CAMLucc) in combination with physical variables and land-use planning data was applied to simulate LULC change in Portimão, Portugal between 1947 and 2010 and to predict its future spatial patterns for 2020 and 2025. The main results of this research show that Portimão has been facing massive growth in artificial surfaces, particularly near the main urban settlements and along the coastal area, and reveal an early and intensive urban sprawl over time.
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