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Is Predicting a Win in Esports Possible?: Marketing Opportunities of the Overwatch League Phenomenon
Abstract
This chapter aims to identify the variables that can predict a win in an esports game, using the Overwatch League as an exploratory example for international market entry. The goal of using predictive analytics is to pinpoint where marketing efforts should be concentrated to maximize impact. The Overwatch League was the first franchised esport with 20 city-based teams competing in 6v6 games and serves as the basis for this analysis. Utilizing logistic regressions with a binary win/loss variable for three years of Overwatch League games, the data revealed that previous overall wins did not predict future wins. However, certain tactics and hero selections were significant predictors of success. This study highlights future areas for predictive analytics research across various esports, aiming to uncover market opportunities on a global scale. As esports leagues accumulate longer-term data, season-to-season analytics should be evaluated to discern patterns for effective market entry and growth strategies.
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