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Demographic Transition, Oil, and Institutions: Lessons from the Global Experience for Iran
Abstract
We examine political and economic drivers of demographic transition and the moderating role of institutions, macroeconomic instability and oil rents dependency in the final effects of increasing working age population on economic development and internal conflict. Using panel data estimations for more than 100 countries from 1984 to 2012 we find that demographic transition may lead to demographic dividend only if the country enjoys good quality of economic and political institutions, a diversified economy and stable consumer prices. Otherwise demographic dividend is not guaranteed. By contrast, we may expect a demographic curse. These results have important policy implications for the case of Iran which is expecting a significant transition in its population age structure since 1990s. Future of Iran is highly dependent on the proper use of potential demographic rent which can turn against the political stability if the wrong policies and institutions are in place and country dependence on oil rents continues as before.
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