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Complexity Theory and System Dynamics for Project Risk Management

Complexity Theory and System Dynamics for Project Risk Management
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Author(s): Robert J. Chapman (Dr. Chapman and Associates Limited, UK)
Copyright: 2017
Pages: 25
Source title: Decision Management: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications
Source Author(s)/Editor(s): Information Resources Management Association (USA)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-5225-1837-2.ch019

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Abstract

As a consequence of the consensus that projects are growing in complexity from ever ambitious goals there is a perpetual search for methods aimed at pinpointing and describing the source of complexity with the objective of subsequently reducing uncertainty, managing risk and improving project performance. An area of study that has engaged enquiring minds for over fifty years but has not yet been accepted into mainstream project management is the study and application of systems thinking and system dynamics. The purpose of this chapter is to promulgate the view that the mapping of projects as systems should be re-examined as a means of articulating and responding to complexity. The chapter examines general systems theory, systems thinking and systems dynamics with examples of causal loop diagrams as an aid to describe and respond to risk exposure. It includes simple causal loop diagrams as a means of illustrating how risks may be identified and addressed. The emphasis is on seeing the ‘big picture' to avoid gaps and omissions in the management of risk and uncertainty.

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