Railway Demand Forecasting

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Author(s): Miloš Milenković (Zaragoza Logistic Center, Spain & University of Belgrade, Serbia)and Nebojša Bojović (University of Belgrade, Serbia)
Copyright: 2016
Pages: 30
Source title: Handbook of Research on Emerging Innovations in Rail Transportation Engineering
Source Author(s)/Editor(s): B. Umesh Rai (Chennai Metro Rail Limited, India)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-5225-0084-1.ch005

Keywords: Civil Engineering / Engineering Science Reference / Science & Engineering

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Abstract

Forecasting represents an indispensable activity in railway transportation planning. Forecasting of demand levels is vital to the railway company as a whole as it provides the basic input for the planning and control of all functional areas including railway transport operations planning, marketing and finance. Demand levels and the timing of their appearance (on a day, week, month or seasonal basis) greatly effects capacity levels, financial needs and general structure of the business.Forecasting employs historical data and uses various forecasting methods to make accurate estimates of future demands. Forecasting approaches can be generally divided into two categories: econometric or causal and time series techniques. In this chapter a comprehensive review of methods belonging to these two broad classes will be made. Special emphasis will be given to the application of these techniques to railway demand modeling.

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