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Financial Crisis Reveals Systemic Crisis of Official Statistics
Abstract
The financial crisis of 2008 reveals a significant distortion of the information system and a systemic crisis of the internationally agreed upon National Accounts Approach in Germany. Reports on economic growth and on political key indicators like Gross Domestic Product (GDP) failed, when in 2008 the bankruptcy of the finance system and in 2011 the end of the EURO were to be feared. Comments on the poor statistical results were expressed by the German chancellor Angela Merkel first in 2008. The investigation of the political relevance and reliability of official results reveal distortions and failures that are due to National Accounts and its “toxically infected” database. Positivists like Popper, Carnap, and Friedman criticized for long the tautological bookkeeping approach. Schumpeter puts aggregations to planned economies. The “monetary curtain” of Mises, however, hides the “real economy” and the “bubbles” created by credit financing. Adam Smith might oppose the macro-economic theory of Paul Samuelson and John Meynard Keynes, as they do not differentiate between market production and state and bank services. GDP is a false political reference for monitoring and controlling economic stability. The enterprises, their balances, cash flow, liquidity, and equity are neglected. National assets, like natural resources and property, infrastructure, and logistics and geographical issues are inadequately covered by the present system. Data are poor on the impact of public debt and public ownership on the markets. Data bases are “toxically infected” due to “false response,” “shadow economy,” and “off-shore-hidden-money.” The framework of National Accounts needs revision to improve political relevance and reliability. Investigation is needed to estimate the bias of the database. Audited stocktakings and re-evaluations of accounts and balances are preconditions.
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