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An Empirical Review of Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasts for Turkey
Abstract
Energy consumption has been increasing steadily in Turkey due to growing population, industrialization and increasing living standards. Considering the fact that energy infrastructure projects are of the immense cost and/or creates long term dependencies on imported energy resources, inaccurate planning may cause significant demand-resource mismatches and considerable financial consequences in the long term. Unrealistic elaboration of energy structures and inaccurate political decisions can create structural problems in long-term energy planning and sustainable development of the economy. This study shows how actual figures deviate from official forecasts and present reliability of other techniques used by academia. Possible reasons for forecast models to produce inaccurate results which naturally lead to incorrect policy implementations are also discussed.
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